22 Jul · 21:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MD
🇨🇿Marek Dlask
ELO 1486
FormWWWWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Dlask
MN
🇨🇿Michal Nemec
ELO 1427
FormWWLLW
55%
45%
Fair odds · Dlask
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+59
H2H19-14
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+59)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (19-14)