22 Jul · 22:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MN
🇨🇿Michal Nemec
ELO 1427
FormWWLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Mach
JM
🇨🇿Jakub Mach
ELO 1466
FormWLWWL
47%
53%
🌟Mach goes over total as favourite 73% (26)
Fair odds · Mach
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+39
H2H2-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.