22 Jul · 23:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MB
🇨🇿Michal Brozek
ELO 1610
FormLLWLL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Bochnak
DB
🇨🇿David Bochnak
ELO 1720
FormWWLWW
41%
59%
🔥 Underdog lean · Brozek
Fair odds · Bochnak
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~77 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+110
H2H3-7
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+110)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)