22 Jul · 21:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
RK
🇨🇿Rene Kowal
ELO 1615
FormWLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Kowal
PV
🇨🇿Petr Vicherek
ELO 1601
FormLWLWW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vicherek🌟Vicherek covers set handicap as underdog 82% (33)
Fair odds · Kowal
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+14
H2H22-15
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.