22 Jul · 18:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DK
🇨🇿Denys Kovtanyuk
ELO 1376
FormWLLLL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Dabek
MD
🇨🇿Michal Dabek
ELO 1485
FormLWLLL
41%
59%
Fair odds · Dabek
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 54% · 1.85· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~77 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+109
H2H2-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+109)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-0)