23 Jul · 12:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JS
🇨🇿Jan Skvrna
ELO 1601
FormWLWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Skvrna
JK
🇨🇿Jan Krupnik
ELO 1547
FormLWLLW
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Krupnik🌟Skvrna rarely covers set handicap as favourite 29% (75)
Fair odds · Skvrna
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 56% · 1.80· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+54
H2H29-23
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.