23 Jul · 12:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
PC
🇨🇿Pavel Chvatal
ELO 1618
FormWLWLW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Chvatal
JL
🇨🇿Jan Lovl
ELO 1538
FormWWLWW
57%
43%
Fair odds · Chvatal
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 42% · 2.37· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~75 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+80
H2H8-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+80)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (8-5)