23 Jul · 09:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DP
🇨🇿Dominik Pawlik
ELO 1607
FormWWWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Pawlik
RB
🇨🇿Radek Benes
ELO 1568
FormWLWWW
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Benes🌟Pawlik rarely covers set handicap as favourite 25% (16)
Fair odds · Pawlik
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+39
H2H3-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.