23 Jul · 10:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JK
🇨🇿Jan Krupnik
ELO 1547
FormLWLLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Pawlik
DP
🇨🇿Dominik Pawlik
ELO 1607
FormWWWWW
45%
55%
🔥 Underdog lean · Krupnik🌟Pawlik rarely covers set handicap as favourite 25% (16)
Fair odds · Pawlik
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~74 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+60
H2H9-11
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+60)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)