23 Jul · 10:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MP
🇨🇿Michal Prochazka
ELO 1633
FormWWWWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Prochazka
PB
🇨🇿Pavel Benes
ELO 1542
FormWWLWL
57%
43%
Fair odds · Prochazka
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 66% · 1.50· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~76 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+91
H2H4-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+91)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-0)