23 Jul · 09:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DH
🇨🇿Daniel Hyza
ELO 1585
FormWLWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Brozek
MB
🇨🇿Michal Brozek
ELO 1609
FormLWWLL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Brozek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+24
H2H28-37
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.