23 Jul · 14:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PC
🇨🇿Pavel Chvatal
ELO 1618
FormWLWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Chvatal
RV
🇨🇿Radek Vosyka
ELO 1572
FormLLLWL
54%
46%
Fair odds · Chvatal
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+46
H2H10-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.