23 Jul · 21:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MC
🇨🇿Martin Chmelicek
ELO 1384
FormLLLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Kabelka
JK
🇨🇿Jan Kabelka
ELO 1432
FormWWLLL
46%
54%
Fair odds · Kabelka
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+48
H2H12-19
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.