23 Jul · 17:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
BM
🇨🇿Borek Moravec
ELO 1674
FormLWWLL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Moravec
JL
🇨🇿Jan Lisztwan
ELO 1572
FormLWWWL
58%
42%
Fair odds · Moravec
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~75 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+102
H2H6-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+102)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (6-5)