23 Jul · 21:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JD
🇨🇿Jiri Dokoupil
ELO 1466
FormLLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Matus
JM
🇨🇿Jiri Matus
ELO 1474
FormLLWLL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Matus
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+8
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.