23 Jul · 20:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VR
🇨🇿Vladislav Reska
ELO 1510
FormWWLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Reska
LL
🇨🇿Laurent Lasota
ELO 1486
FormLLWLW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Lasota🌟Lasota covers set handicap as underdog 83% (12)
Fair odds · Reska
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+24
H2H3-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.