23 Jul · 20:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JM
🇨🇿Jiri Matus
ELO 1474
FormLLWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Matus
RJ
🇨🇿Richard Jancak
ELO 1462
FormLLWLW
51%
49%
🌟Jancak covers set handicap as underdog 69% (32)
Fair odds · Matus
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+12
H2H8-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.