23 Jul · 17:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PJ
🇨🇿Patrik Jokiel
ELO 1444
FormLLWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Lasota
LL
🇨🇿Laurent Lasota
ELO 1486
FormLLWLW
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jokiel🌟Lasota goes over total as favourite 67% (12)
Fair odds · Lasota
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+42
H2H2-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.