23 Jul · 19:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JV
🇨🇿Jiri Vanous
ELO 1425
FormWLLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Vanous
ML
🇨🇿Martin Lorenc
ELO 1399
FormWLLLL
52%
48%
🌟Vanous rarely covers set handicap as favourite 28% (18)
Fair odds · Vanous
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+26
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.