23 Jul · 22:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JK
🇨🇿Jan Kabelka
ELO 1432
FormWWLLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Kabelka
MD
🇨🇿Miloslav Dvorak
ELO 1427
FormWWLLL
50%
50%
Fair odds · Kabelka
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+5
H2H1-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.