23 Jul · 16:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LL
🇨🇿Laurent Lasota
ELO 1486
FormLLWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Drozd
AD
🇨🇿Ales Drozd
ELO 1511
FormWWLLW
48%
52%
🌟Lasota covers set handicap as underdog 83% (12)
Fair odds · Drozd
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+25
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.