23 Jul · 18:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MD
🇨🇿Milan Dvorak
ELO 1444
FormLLLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Zahradka
ZZ
🇨🇿Zdenek Zahradka
ELO 1451
FormLWWWL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Dvorak🌟Zahradka rarely covers set handicap as favourite 36% (118)
Fair odds · Zahradka
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+7
H2H21-15
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.