23 Jul · 21:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AJ
🇨🇿Ales Brandtl Jr
ELO 1502
FormLLWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Barsa
TB
🇨🇿Tomas Barsa
ELO 1524
FormWWWWL
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jr🌟Barsa rarely covers set handicap as favourite 36% (39)
Fair odds · Barsa
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+22
H2H0-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.