23 Jul · 23:50 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MF
🇨🇿Milan Flesar
ELO 1536
FormLWWWW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Flesar
JK
🇨🇿Jan Kabelka
ELO 1438
FormWWLWW
58%
42%
Fair odds · Flesar
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 55% · 1.81· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~76 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+98
H2H9-7
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+98)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (9-7)