24 Jul · 13:50 MESZLow · Coin Flip
SM
🇨🇿Simon Matousch
ELO 1446
FormWLLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Matousch
JR
🇨🇿Jakub Rolik
ELO 1440
FormLWLWL
51%
49%
🌟Rolik covers set handicap as underdog 68% (96)
Fair odds · Matousch
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+6
H2H42-26
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.