24 Jul · 09:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LS
🇨🇿Lukas Krupnik Snr
ELO 1450
FormWWWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Sturma
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1496
FormWWLWL
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Snr🌟Snr covers set handicap as underdog 92% (13)
Fair odds · Sturma
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+46
H2H11-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.