24 Jul · 13:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
TM
🇨🇿Tomas Molin
ELO 1523
FormLLWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Molin
OK
🇨🇿Ondrej Kus
ELO 1517
FormWLWLW
51%
49%
🌟Molin goes over total as favourite 75% (20)
Fair odds · Molin
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+6
H2H2-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.