24 Jul · 10:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sulc
ELO 1493
FormWWLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Vonasek
JV
🇨🇿Jan Vonasek
ELO 1505
FormLWWLL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sulc🌟Sulc covers set handicap as underdog 68% (82)
Fair odds · Vonasek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+12
H2H39-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.