24 Jul · 12:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JJ
🇨🇿Jakub Joksch
ELO 1505
FormWLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Joksch
RF
🇨🇿Radek Fitl
ELO 1498
FormLLLLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Joksch
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+7
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.