24 Jul · 10:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JM
🇨🇿Jan Masternak
ELO 1487
FormLLLLW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Gola
PG
🇨🇿Pawel Gola
ELO 1590
FormWWLWL
42%
58%
Fair odds · Gola
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 62% · 1.61· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~80 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+103
H2H86-83
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+103)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (86-83)