24 Jul · 10:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
ML
🇨🇿Michal Lysakowski
ELO 1577
FormLWWWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Stepien
MS
🇨🇿Marcin Stepien
ELO 1640
FormWWWLW
45%
55%
Fair odds · Stepien
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 55% · 1.83· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+63
H2H122-95
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+63)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (122-95)