24 Jul · 18:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JS
🇨🇿Jaroslav Sindler
ELO 1518
FormLWWLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Mandrysz
FM
🇨🇿Filip Mandrysz
ELO 1519
FormWLWLW
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Mandrysz🌟Sindler covers set handicap as underdog 78% (41)
Fair odds · Mandrysz
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+1
H2H13-19
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.