24 Jul · 17:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MR
🇨🇿Michal Raska
ELO 1481
FormLLLLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Moravec
MM
🇨🇿Michal Moravec
ELO 1563
FormLWWLW
43%
57%
🌟Moravec stays under total as favourite 78% (18)
Fair odds · Moravec
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~80 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+82
H2H1-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+82)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)