24 Jul · 17:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DJ
🇨🇿David Jicha
ELO 1653
FormLWLWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Stusek
MS
🇨🇿Martin Stusek
ELO 1657
FormWLLWL
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Stusek🌟Jicha covers set handicap as underdog 76% (17)
Fair odds · Stusek
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+4
H2H72-94
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.