24 Jul · 21:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JS
🇨🇿Jachym Sebl
ELO 1494
FormLWWLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Sebl
RM
🇨🇿Radek Muller
ELO 1490
FormLWLWL
50%
50%
🌟Sebl stays under total as favourite 63% (75)
Fair odds · Sebl
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~80 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+4
H2H21-25
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.