24 Jul · 18:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MT
🇨🇿Milan Tlusty
ELO 1490
FormLWLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Tlusty
JD
🇨🇿Jakub Dvorak
ELO 1477
FormWWWLL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Dvorak🌟Dvorak covers set handicap as underdog 72% (40)
Fair odds · Tlusty
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+13
H2H12-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.