24 Jul · 21:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JS
🇨🇿Jan Skvrna
ELO 1609
FormWLWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Chaloupka
FC
🇨🇿Frantisek Chaloupka
ELO 1645
FormWLWWW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Chaloupka
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 35% · 2.82· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+36
H2H8-16
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.