24 Jul · 17:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
IH
🇨🇿Ivan Heuman
ELO 1584
FormWLLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Heuman
MM
🇨🇿Michal Moravec
ELO 1563
FormLWWLW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Moravec🌟Heuman rarely covers set handicap as favourite 29% (31)
Fair odds · Heuman
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+21
H2H4-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.