24 Jul · 19:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MS
🇨🇿Martin Stusek
ELO 1657
FormWLLWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Stusek
TV
🇨🇿Tomas Vorisek
ELO 1653
FormLWWLW
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vorisek
Fair odds · Stusek
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+4
H2H147-175
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.