24 Jul · 21:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JV
🇨🇿Jiri Vanous
ELO 1431
FormWLLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Vanous
TO
🇨🇿Tomas Ogrocki
ELO 1394
FormWLLLW
53%
47%
🌟Ogrocki stays under total as underdog 74% (23)
Fair odds · Vanous
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+37
H2H6-17
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.