24 Jul · 18:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
OS
🇨🇿Oldrich Stehlik
ELO 1643
FormLWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Lengal
DL
🇨🇿Dominik Lengal
ELO 1658
FormWWWLL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Lengal
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+15
H2H20-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.