25 Jul · 13:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
RP
🇨🇿Radim Pokorny
ELO 1523
FormWWWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Ruzicka
JR
🇨🇿Jan Ruzicka
ELO 1533
FormLWWWL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Ruzicka
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+10
H2H10-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.