25 Jul · 09:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JJ
🇨🇿Jan Manhal Jnr
ELO 1514
FormLWWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Jnr
RF
🇨🇿Radek Fitl
ELO 1484
FormLWLLL
52%
48%
Fair odds · Jnr
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+30
H2H4-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.