25 Jul · 09:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MZ
🇨🇿Marek Zaskodny
ELO 1538
FormWWWLW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Sarganek
DS
🇨🇿David Sarganek
ELO 1647
FormWLWWL
41%
59%
Fair odds · Sarganek
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~76 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+109
H2H18-12
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+109)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (18-12)