25 Jul · 13:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MN
🇨🇿Michal Nemec
ELO 1423
FormLWWLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Mach
JM
🇨🇿Jakub Mach
ELO 1483
FormWWWLW
45%
55%
🌟Mach goes over total as favourite 72% (29)
Fair odds · Mach
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+60
H2H3-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+60)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-2)