25 Jul · 08:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DS
🇨🇿David Sarganek
ELO 1647
FormWLWWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Sarganek
RN
🇨🇿Rostislav Niezgoda
ELO 1646
FormWLWWW
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Niezgoda🌟Niezgoda covers set handicap as underdog 67% (18)
Fair odds · Sarganek
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+1
H2H34-43
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.