25 Jul · 09:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PB
🇨🇿Pavel Benes
ELO 1579
FormWWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Benes
MK
🇨🇿Marek Kulisek
ELO 1566
FormWLLLW
51%
49%
🌟Benes rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (57)
Fair odds · Benes
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+13
H2H28-15
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.