25 Jul · 09:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sobota
ELO 1442
FormLWLLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Jancak
RJ
🇨🇿Richard Jancak
ELO 1502
FormWWLWW
45%
55%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sobota🌟Jancak goes over total as favourite 68% (31)
Fair odds · Jancak
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+60
H2H4-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+60)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-2)