25 Jul · 15:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
LL
🇨🇿Laurent Lasota
ELO 1508
FormLLWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Lasota
OS
🇨🇿Ondrej Skvor
ELO 1495
FormLWWWW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Lasota
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+13
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.