25 Jul · 21:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
OK
🇨🇿Ondrej Kus
ELO 1517
FormWLWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Macurak
MM
🇨🇿Michal Macurak
ELO 1531
FormLLWWW
49%
51%
🌟Kus stays under total as underdog 72% (18)
Fair odds · Macurak
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+14
H2H2-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.